The Victorian property market has spent the last 12 months adjusting to new conditions, which has put a strain on individuals, businesses, and the state’s economy. As Melbourne’s roadmap out of lockdown inches closer, this week was the perfect time for Philip Webb to host its Annual Economic Forecast.
For the 13th year, we welcomed Alan Oster, Chief Economist at the National Australia Bank (NAB), to unpack the impacts of COVID-19 on the global economy, Australia’s economy, and the property market. As always, Alan’s insights helped the Philip Webb community gain a deeper understanding of different economic drivers and how they personally might be impacted.
Please see below for a few key takeaways from this year’s Annual Economic Forecast with Alan Oster:
- The last 12 months shows us once lockdowns end, economic recovery snaps back quickly
- For 2022, we see GDP growth accelerating with an expected increase of around 4.3 per cent compared to 2021 which saw a jump of 1 per cent
- Unemployment could rise to above 5 per cent by the year’s end, or early 2022, but then will decrease over 2022-2023
- Generally speaking, the Australian states that have performed better in 2021 are harder to get across the border (eg. Tasmania, WA)
- Overall, there was a huge slowing in September across all industries, however, finance, property and business fared well in comparison to hospitality
- New ways of working (eg. Zoom) has been a key driver of increased house prices as people focus on where they want to live rather than where they have to live
- Very low interest rates have been a key driver of increased house prices and the RBA is unlikely to increase rates until 2024
- House prices will continue to grow at an anticipated 5 per cent, but a much slower rate than 2021 (20 per cent)
For anyone who could not attend or would like to listen to the forecast in full, a recording of the webinar has been uploaded to the Philip Webb YouTube channel.
Philip Webb would like to say a huge thank you to Alan for taking the time to share his knowledge, examining current and future trends from around the globe. We would also like to thank NAB for making the forecast possible and very much look forward to next year.